One Week Until the Apple Keynote - iPhone 7, HomeKit on the Way!

We know we're getting a new iPhone next week.

We don't know what it will be called.

If the new iPhone isn't the "iPhone 7", it will be a disruption - probably in a good way.

For better or worse, the majority of iPhone users upgrade on a 2-year cycle.

(The 2-year mark has always been when our iPhones started to show their age.)

Personally, I'm a sucker for new form factors, so I have always upgraded in the "new number" years, as opposed to the "S" years.

That 2-year cycle also matched our service commitments - we'd sign on for a 2-year term and get a subsidized phone.

At the end of the term, we could sell our old phones - which would, more or less, cover the subsidized cost of our new iPhone, on a new 2-year service contract.

That's how I bought by iPhone 3G, my 4, and my 5.

With the iPhone 6, I went a different direction. No subsidized pricing, and no service contract. Instead, I went with the Verizon "Edge" payment plan.

This came with a HUGE 62.5% reduction in our smartphone line access charges - from $40 to $15. The line access discount almost cancelled out the $31/month cost of the phone.

Given that it's been 2 years, I'm incredibly likely to buy whatever iPhone Apple introduces next week.

As an aside - "No headphone jack" is "No big deal" for me. Apple has been eliminating legacy connectors and software from its devices for decades, and every single time, they've driven innovation, despite people screaming that this time, they've Gone Too Far. "But we NEED our floppy drive/serial port/optical drive/Adobe Flash/FireWire/30-pin iOS/USB-3 connector!"

OK, the idea to go with ONLY USB-C on the new MacBook is still a head scratcher. That's avant garde. Apple is still shipping lightning cables have standard USB on the other side.

So, yeah.
I'm buying the new iPhone.
Even though it's the same form factor.
Even if it's not the iPhone 7.  

And I'll bet that a LOT of other people will, too - the iPhone 6 was a huge seller, and all of those happy 6 owners are hitting the end of their 2-year window.

And then I'll buy another iPhone, 1 year later.

Disrupting the 2-year Purchase Cycle

By all accounts, this year's iPhone is going to be an evolution, and the NEXT year's iPhone will be a revolution. 

This year, we get a faster processor, rearranged antennas, a little more memory, and no headphone jack. (And, if you

Next year, we (maybe) get an all glass phone with a full-bleed OLED screen, maybe even curving around the edges. People are already excited about it. 

So, yeah, I'm gonna buy that one, too. 

And I'm not going to be alone. 

So, presumably, sales in the "off" year will be substantially higher, with a ton of 1-year upgraders AND the usual "S" upgraders, all buying phones in the same year.  

And just like that, Apple will be free from their 2-year "tick-tock" upgrade cycle. 

They'll be able to change form factor when new technologies call for it, instead of every 2 years.  

People will keep upgrading their phones every couple of years, no matter what - but they'll also want to jump in when Apple changes things up during an "off year". 

And HomeKit?



We're getting a HomeKit app. 

This is going to drive HomeKit adoption, which is going to drive creation of HomeKit devices, which will drive further HomeKit adoption.

We've been stuck in a holding pattern, waiting for Apple to finally make their HomeKit move. It's been (literally) years. 

At long last, we're going to see if Apple's solution was worth waiting for.

Anything Else?   

There have been so many Apple things that I've pined for over the years. 

An Apple NAS (your personal iCloud!). 
An Apple universal remote control (could be a godsend if/when we move to SlingTV on the AppleTV full time.)

But this year, all I really want is a Mac Mini upgrade. 

It's been since 2014, and that iteration of the Mini was a step backward, with its soldered RAM. 

More to the point, a new Mini release would (potentially) drive down the cost of used Minis, so I can finally get that home server up and running. 

Bottom line - in one week, we can get out of this holding pattern. For better or worse, we'll know which direction Apple is headed. 

I can't wait. 


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